Assessing and Managing Earthquake Risk: Geo-scientific and by C. S. Oliveira, A. Roca, X. Goula (auth.), Carlos Sousa PDF

By C. S. Oliveira, A. Roca, X. Goula (auth.), Carlos Sousa Oliveira, Antoni Roca, Xavier Goula (eds.)

This publication issues out the necessity of a multidisciplinary technique within the box of danger evaluation and administration. It offers an summary of the issues, techniques and customary practices without delay regarding earthquake danger mitigation and, particularly, to the instruction of earthquake emergency plans. Written by way of a crew of experts from diversified disciplines, the authors labored jointly broadly with the intention to create cohesion and continuity within the textual content as an entire. each one subject is illustrated with examples of tangible purposes taken from the bibliography – together with web pages with on hand suitable details. Case reviews and data on a few suitable foreign tasks are given.
This paintings may be of curiosity to scholars and pros with a easy schooling in geology, geophysics, geotechnical and civil engineering, approach research, geography and structure. it may be used as a textbook for a really expert post-graduate path at the subject.

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Extra info for Assessing and Managing Earthquake Risk: Geo-scientific and Engineering Knowledge for Earthquake Risk Mitigation: developments, tools, techniques

Example text

In other words, that probability can be interpreted as conditional, regarding the occurrence of an earthquake in source zone i with magnitude between those limits. The integral of fM(m)i from m0 to mu must be always equal to 1. On the other hand, the term P(U>u|m,R) in the same expression is obviously conditional on the occurrence of an earthquake with a given magnitude and focal distance. Consequently, values of P(U>u)i (given by eq. 3) also translate the probability of exceeding the intensity u, conditioned by the occurrence of an earthquake in seismic source i, with magnitude between the limits m0 and mu; so far nothing was said about the probability of the occurrence of this event.

As will be described later, this method uses the catalogue of events to define a Poisson occurrence process within the seismic sources and the attenuation laws derived for the region under analysis. In parallel, European experts developed another probabilistic methodology based on the statistics of the extreme values of strong ground motion parameters at the site, deduced from events in the past (Gumbel, 1958). This method analyzes the catalogue of events and fits the data to a distribution of extreme values.

The second model is obtained from various sources of information dealing with the complex process of source mechanism/propagation of seismic waves till reaching the site under analysis. Computation of PSHA requires the “convolution” of the first two processes, and can be done according to various schemes. Finally, due to lack of high quality data and to the intrinsic nature of the processes under analysis, alternative models should be essayed, uncertainties in parameter estimates should be quantified, and an analysis of sensitivity makes sense.

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